Field note
Break-even horizons before you buy hardware
Break-even is a calendar question as much as a spreadsheet question. Delivery slips, firmware delays, and tariff renewals move the date even when the machine’s nameplate efficiency looks fine on paper.
Name the decision the horizon must protect
Investors often need a horizon that clears an internal limit before capital is released. Operators already holding space may tolerate a longer window if night rates are secure. Write the decision at the top of the page so the clinic does not drift into general market talk.
Build three cases, not one
Use a hopeful hashprice, a mid case grounded in the last quarter’s average, and a stressed case. Keep power price fixed unless you truly expect a tariff change inside the horizon. Mixing both variables in every case makes the story unreadable.
Stress the start date
Shift energization by thirty and sixty days. Many purchase orders look acceptable on the brochure timeline and fail once freight sits at port. Our break-even planning clinic spends deliberate time on this shift before discussing pool fees.
Leave depreciation visible
If you hide hardware depreciation, break-even collapses into a cash-only story. State the months you expect the machine class to remain competitive in your hall, then check whether the mid-case horizon still fits inside that life.